Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Direvisi BI, 5,1% hingga 5,5%.
Indonesian Economic Growth Target Revised by Bank Indonesia, 5.1 Percent to 5.5 Percent
Reporter : Gatot Priyantono
Editor : Ismail Gani
Translator : Novita Cahyadi
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Jakarta (B2B) - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2014 direvisi oleh Bank Indonesia, dari prediksi sebelumnya 5,5% hingga 5,9% menjadi 5,1% menjadi 5,5%.
"Faktor yang membuat kami merevisi pertumbuhan ekonomi, yakni revisi pada kinerja ekspor," kata Gubernur BI Agus Martowardojo kepada pers di Jakarta, Kamis.
Agus mengatakan bahwa semula BI memperkirakan ekspor riil (barang dan jasa) dapat tumbuh 8,1% hingga 8,5%. Namun, pada realisasinya pada triwulan pertama 2014, ekspor riil tumbuh jauh lebih rendah, yakni 1,5% hingga 1,9%.
"Menurunnya ekspor riil disebabkan tiga faktor, yakni melambatnya permintaan domestik, masih rendahnya harga komoditas ekspor, dan dampak penerapan UU Minerba," ujar Agus.
Asesmen Bank Indonesia menunjukkan pemulihan ekonomi global masih berlanjut. Perbaikan kondisi ekonomi global, terutama ditopang oleh perekonomian negara-negara maju seperti AS dan Eropa, sebagai dampak stimulus moneter yang masih berlanjut. Perbaikan kondisi ekonomi global tersebut berdampak pada kenaikan volume perdagangan dunia.
"Kendati demikian, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi terjadi di China sejalan dengan kebijakan penyeimbangan ekonomi yang ditempuhnya. Harga komoditas juga masih cenderung menurun, khususnya pada komoditas karet, tembaga dan batubara," kata Agus.
Ke depan, lanjut Agus, Bank Indonesia akan terus mencermati berbagai risiko dari perekonomian global, terutama risiko yang bersumber dari normalisasi kebijakan the Fed dan risiko perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada Triwulan I 2014 sendiri melambat, terutama dipengaruhi ekspor riil yang mencatat kontraksi. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Triwulan I 2014 tercatat sebesar 5,21% (YoY), menurun dari pertumbuhan triwulan IV 2013 sebesar 5,72% (YoY) dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan awal Bank Indonesia.
Kontraksi ekspor riil terutama akibat penurunan ekspor pertambangan, seperti batu bara dan konsentrat mineral, antara lain karena melemahnya pemintaan, terutama dari Tiongkok dan menurunnya harga serta pengaruh temporer dari dampak kebijakan pelarangan ekspor mineral mentah. Selain itu, konsumsi pemerintah yang melambat juga berkontribusi terhadap perlambatan ekonomi.
Meski demikian, kata dia, konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi masih tumbuh cukup baik untuk menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi Triwulan I 2014.
Pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga didorong oleh keyakinan konsumen yang tetap kuat dan dampak pemilu legislatif. Investasi juga sedikit meningkat ditopang oleh investasi nonbangunan yang kembali tumbuh positif, terutama investasi mesin, sedangkan pertumbuhan investasi bangunan melambat.
"Sejalan dengan moderasi permintaan domestik, impor riil juga melambat. Namun, tidak dapat mengimbangi kontraksi pada ekspor riil sehingga belum dapat memperbaiki kinerja ekspor neto," kata Agus.
Jakarta (B2B) - Bank Indonesia (BI) revised down its prediction of economic growth in 2014, from its initial 5.5-5.9 percent to 5.1-5.5 percent.
"The factor that had made us revise the economic growth target down is the revision of export performance," BI governor Agus Martowardojo said at a press conference here on Thursday.
He said initially BI predicted that real exports (goods and services) would grow 8.1- 8.5 percent but in reality in the first quarter the growth of real exports was lower between 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent.
"The drop in the real exports was caused by three factors, namely slow domestic demand, low price of export commodities and impact of the implementation of the law on minerals and coal," he said.
Based on Bank Indonesia's assessment, global economic recovery is still continuing. Improvement in global economic conditions is primarily driven by economic conditions in advanced countries, such as the United States and Europe, as the impact of the monetary stimulus is still continuing. The improvement in the global economic conditions had led to an increase in the volume of world trade, he explained.
"However, China's growth had slowed after it implemented a policy to balance its economy. The price of commodities also tended to decline, especially that of rubber, copper and coal," he said.
In the future, Martowardojo said, Bank Indonesia will continue monitoring different risks from global economic development, especially those that come from normalization of the Federal policy and China's slow economic growth.
Indonesia's economy in the first quarter slowed due to contraction of real exports. The country's economy grew 5.21 percent in the first quarter year-on-year, down from 5.72 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 and from Bank Indonesia's initial forecast.
The contraction of real exports was mainly caused by a decline in mining exports, such as coal and mineral concentrate among others, due to weak demand, especially from China, and a price drop and the temporary impact of the ban on raw mineral exports.
The slow consumption by the government, meanwhile, had also contributed to the slowing down of the economic growth.
Household consumption and investment, however, still grew and bolstered economic growth in the first quarter of 2014.
Household consumption growth was boosted by consumers' confidence that remained strong and the impact of the legislative election on April 9.
Investments had also increased marginally driven by non-construction investments that grew, especially machinery investments, while construction investment had slowed down.
"In line with the moderation of domestic demand, real imports had also slowed but could not balance the contraction in real exports so that it could not improve net export performance," he said.
