Kebijakan Fiskal 2015 Perhatikan Perkembangan Global dan Domestik
Indonesian Gov`t Announces Fiscal Policies 2015
Reporter : Gatot Priyantono
Editor : Cahyani Harzi
Translator : Dhelia Gani
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Jakarta (B2B) - Pemerintah menegaskan kerangka ekonomi makro dan pokok-pokok kebijakan fiskal 2015, yang disusun dengan memperhatikan berbagai perkembangan ekonomi global dan domestik saat ini, dalam rapat paripurna DPR RI.
"Dokumen kerangka ekonomi makro dan pokok-pokok kebijakan fiskal 2015 merupakan penjabaran arah dan strategi yang ditempuh pemerintah untuk merespon dinamika perekonomian, dan menjawab tantangan serta isu strategis untuk mendukung target pemerintah," kata Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri di Jakarta, Selasa.
Ia menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi global di tahun 2014 dan 2015 diperkirakan akan membaik dan lebih tinggi dibanding 2013, namun masih terdapat beberapa tantangan dan risiko, antara lain perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok, risiko gejolak likuiditas global sebagai dampak kebijakan tapering off di 2014 dan rencana kenaikan suku bunga The Fed 2015 serta pelaksanaan Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN.
Sementara, tantangan dari dalam negeri antara lain terkait dukungan infrastruktur dan sumber energi serta dampak jangka pendek kebijakan pelarangan ekspor bahan mineral tambang sebagai upaya hilirisasi, masalah ketimpangan pendapatan dan stabilitas fiskal.
"Secara umum, perekonomian domestik melambat 5,8 persen pada 2013, menjadi 5,5 persen pada 2014. Perlambatan tersebut terutama karena menurunnya kinerja ekspor, melambatnya kredit bagi dunia usaha, tingginya suku bunga, lemahnya harga komoditi internasional serta dampak jangka pendek pelarangan ekspor bahan tambang mentah," kata Chatib.
Dengan memperhatikan berbagai faktor serta perkembangan ekonomi global dan domestik, pemerintah mengajukan perkiraan asumsi dasar ekonomi makro 2015, yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,5% hingga 6%, laju inflasi 3% hingga 5% dan nilai tukar Rp11.500 hingga Rp12.000 per dolar AS.
Kemudian, tingkat suku bunga SPN 3 bulan 6,0 persen hingga 6,5 persen, harga ICP minyak 95 dolar AS-110 dolar AS per barel, lifting minyak 900 ribu-920 ribu barel per hari dan lifting gas 1.200 ribu-1.250 ribu barel setara minyak per hari.
Chatib menambahkan meskipun ada dinamika dalam indikator ekonomi makro, namun pemerintah tetap berkomitmen untuk berupaya mengakselerasi pencapaian target pembangunan nasional dengan mengoptimalkan sumber daya yang dimiliki.
"Untuk itu perumusan kebijakan fiskal terus mempertimbangkan harmonisasi dan keseimbangan antara upaya pemenuhan pelayanan publik, antisipasi terhadap dinamika ekonomi dan akselerasi pencapaian target pembangunan nasional serta upaya meningkatkan perlindungan sosial," katanya.
Ia menambahkan upaya pemerintah dalam mengendalikan risiko dan menjaga kesinambungan fiskal akan ditempuh dengan berbagai cara seperti mengendalikan defisit dalam batas aman melalui optimalisasi pendapatan negara dengan menjaga iklim investasi dan pengelolaan sumber daya alam serta memperbaiki kualitas struktur belanja negara.
"Sejalan dengan arah kebijakan fiskal tersebut, kebijakan defisit 2015, masih akan bersifat ekspansif namun terukur. Kebijakan tersebut diwujudkan melalui defisit anggaran yang terkendali berkisar 1,7 persen-2,5 persen terhadap PDB," kata Chatib.
Ia menambahkan, cara lainnya adalah dengan mengendalikan rasio utang terhadap PDB dengan mengupayakan pembiayaan utang dalam batas aman serta mengendalikan risiko fiskal dalam batas aman, dengan menjaga rasio pembayaran utang terhadap pendapatan dalam negeri.
Jakarta (B2B) - Indonesia`s Finance Minister Chatib Basri has announced the macro-economic and fiscal policies 2015 that were made in accordance with the current domestic and global economic development.
"The draft document of macro-economic and fiscal policies 2015 is an explanation of directions and strategies for the government to respond to the dynamic economy and meet the challenges of strategic issues," remarked Minister Chatib during a plenary meeting with the House of Representatives here on Tuesday.
Chatib explained that the global economic growth in the period between 2014 and 2015 was forecast to improve and be higher than 2013, but several ongoing challenges and risks hampered the growth, such as the sluggish economic growth in China, the risk of global liquidity shock as the effect of tapering off in 2014, the Feds plan to hike the interest rate in 2015, and the start of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015.
With regard to domestic challenges, Indonesia faces some major issues related to the governments support in infrastructure, energy source, and the short-term effects of raw mineral export ban as an effort of down-streaming policies, income disparity, and fiscal stability.
"In general, the economic growth had slowed down from 5.8 percent in 2013 to 5.5 percent in 2014. The slowdown was majorly caused by export performance, sluggish credit for business, high interest rate, low prices of international commodities, and the short-term effects of the raw mineral export ban," Chatib noted.
With regard to various factors related to global and domestic economic development, the government proposed a list of assumptions of the macro-economic base in 2015 to grow at range between 5.5 and 6.0 percent, the inflation flow between 3.0 and 5.0 percent, and exchange rate between Rp11.5 thousand and Rp12 thousand per U.S. dollar.
The three-month treasury bill (SPN) is 6.0 percent to 6.5 percent, Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) reached US$95 to US$110 per barrel, oil lifting reached 0.9 million to 0.92 million barrels per day, and gas lifting is 1.2 million to 1.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
According to Chatib, despite the presence of dynamic macro-economic indicators, the government is committed towards accelerating the achievement of the national development target by optimizing the available sources.
"Thus, the draft of fiscal policies was created by considering the balance of public services fulfillment, the anticipation of economic dynamics, and the acceleration of the national target achievement as well as the efforts to increase social protection," he reiterated.
In order to handle the risks and to maintain fiscal sustainability, Chatib said the government will control the deficit in safe limits through the optimization of the national income by stabilizing investment condition, natural resources management, and improve the quality of the states spending.
"In accordance with the fiscal policies direction, the deficit policy 2015 is still expansive, but measurable. The policy was implemented through a controlled budget deficit of around 1.7 percent to 2.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Incomes (GDI)," he explained.
Chatib added that another way can be established by controlling the debt ratio of the GDI by pushing the debt financing in safe limits and controlling the fiscal ration in safe proportions by taking care of debt payment of the domestic income.
